The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized agency of the United Nations, has confirmed that the El Niño climate system became fully active on September 3, 2026, and is projected to intensify further. The WMO indicates there is a nearly 100 percent probability that this condition will persist until February 2027, significantly increasing the risk of severe floods, droughts, and extreme heat across the Asia-Pacific region, including Nepal.
El Niño, a natural phenomenon that typically recurs every two to seven years, is expected to strengthen in the coming months, potentially reaching an extremely powerful phase by December 2026. This intensification will alter global temperature, rainfall, and climate patterns.
Widespread Impact on Nepal
For Nepal, the 2026 El Niño is forecasted to bring a below-average monsoon, increased temperatures, and a heightened risk of drought. Some areas may also experience excessive rainfall, leading to floods and landslides. This year’s monsoon is projected to see approximately 75 percent less rainfall than average, which is expected to severely impact paddy cultivation, a staple crop.
The Water and Energy Commission Secretariat, a government body responsible for water resource planning, has noted that past El Niño years in Nepal have been characterized by delayed monsoon onset, below-average rainfall, prolonged dry spells, and increased temperatures. These conditions have led to reduced river flows, droughts, forest fires, Himalayan risks, decreased hydropower generation, water scarcity, and adverse effects on agricultural production and food security.
Government Response and Preparedness
In response to the looming crisis, the Water and Energy Commission Secretariat has initiated the drafting of an emergency and preparedness plan for a potential “Super El Niño.” On the international front, Speaker Dolprasad Aryal is preparing to register an “emergency proposal” concerning climate-induced disasters at the upcoming General Assembly of the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU), having already secured support from approximately 50 countries. Prime Minister Balen Shah has also raised the issue of climate justice at the United Nations in New York.
The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal’s national meteorological service, issues seasonal monsoon forecasts and El Niño impact assessments. According to department spokesperson Bibhuti Pokharel, current climate trends are mirroring those observed during previous El Niño years.
Madhesh Province Vulnerability
If El Niño develops strongly in Nepal, the Madhesh Province, known as the country’s granary, is particularly vulnerable. It faces a high probability of a weak monsoon, reduced rainfall, increased heat, and significant impacts on its agricultural sector, especially paddy cultivation and water availability. In drought conditions, farmers in the Tarai region may consider cultivating alternative crops such as maize, black gram, pigeon pea, and lentils. Madhesh Province has already experienced 459 disaster events in the past two months, resulting in 92 fatalities.
Global Warming and Future Outlook
While El Niño is a natural cycle, its effects are projected to be more severe this time due to rising global temperatures. Water resources expert Ajay Dixit stated that increasing carbon emissions from human activities are driving global temperature rises, and El Niño will introduce further deviations. Nepal receives about 80 percent of its annual rainfall during the monsoon season, from June to September. An active El Niño increases the likelihood of a weak, delayed, or early-ending monsoon.
Historically, Nepal experienced its worst drought year in 1992 due to El Niño, with rainfall 19.29 percent below average. The WMO’s earlier forecasts indicated an 80 percent chance of El Niño developing between June and August 2026, reaching 90 percent or more by November 2026.
Despite the possibility of a “Super El Niño,” significant uncertainties remain regarding its exact impact and duration. Most forecast models, however, suggest it will be at least moderate and potentially powerful. Meteorologists also highlight a “spring predictability barrier,” which increases uncertainty in long-term El Niño or La Niña forecasts during this period. There is also limited study on El Niño’s impact on winter rainfall in Nepal.
To mitigate the effects, Nepal needs a multi-faceted strategy, including strengthening early warning and weather forecasting systems and adopting climate-adaptive agricultural practices. Disseminating risk information widely through mobile messages, radio, television, and social media by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology is also crucial.
